Why Many Republicans Believe The Big Lie

NO, REALLY, BLAME THE MEDIA — While we wait for the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol and former President Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election to begin its prime-time hearing, we have new research looking more closely at why so many people believe the lie that the election was stolen.

In short, it may be time for news outlets and their graphics departments to convene some hearings of their own.

Researchers at the Center for Media Engagement at the University of Texas at Austin interviewed 56 people who believed, falsely, that Trump most likely won the 2020 election.

What they learned, in a paper shared first with Nightly: These people do not exist in “tightly sealed, right-wing echo chambers,” and a majority “did not seem to subscribe to multiple conspiracy theories.” Instead, “It appears that election night visuals were particularly powerful in cueing some people’s suspicions,” says the paper, written by Talia Stroud, a professor of communication studies at the University of Texas at Austin, Caroline Murray, a senior research associate at the university’s Center for Media Engagement, and Marley Duchovnay, a research associate there.

It’s true that Trump had some unique things going for him in advancing his fraud. His portrayal of himself as a victim of the news media helped feed the idea that “actors on the left would go to extreme and illegal lengths to see that he was out of office,” according to the researchers.

And the rally sizes that Trump cared so much about? They made a difference in how people viewed the outcome, too. Some people who believed Trump won had a hard time reconciling his large crowds with his losing vote total.

But there was another factor that had nothing to do with Trump: how the lead on election night shifted from Trump to Joe Biden in some states as more ballots came in. Even though such shifts were expected — and explained by many traditional news outlets — the visuals on TV were difficult to overcome.

Nightly spoke with Stroud and Murray about the people who believe Trump’s election lie, how susceptible the country may be to such falsehoods in a future election and what they think the news media should do about it. This conversation has been edited.

Most people you spoke with don’t subscribe to other conspiracy theories. Why is the election lie so effective?

Talia Stroud: I think it’s because it’s so popularly discussed. So many elite figures are making this claim that it adds perceived legitimacy that the election actually was stolen.

Caroline Murray: I would add that this election in particular was actually more difficult to follow in real time than some elections in the past because there were new changes due to the pandemic. When people said, “I’ve never in my whole life experienced what happened in this election,” I think that that actually may be true. The newness and the unique circumstances that were present in 2020 did really open the door for people to be suspicious.

How susceptible to a lie like this do you think people may be in future elections?

Stroud: I think we’re really going to find out in 2022 and 2024, but I think there is a possibility that now that the groundwork has been laid and people think this is a possible narrative, that it’s actually going to be easier for those sorts of claims to take root. I think that there’s a good reason to be nervous about how this will play out in the future and a good reason for all of us to be attentive to the way in which we communicate.

Do you get any sense from the interviews you’ve done that people could be persuaded that they believe in a lie?

Murray: One of the things that made me a little bit hopeful after doing all of these interviews was that there are a lot of shades of belief here. Some people really believe this strongly and might be more susceptible to believing it again in future elections. But a lot of people were expressing uncertainty as they were sharing their thoughts with me, and they were saying that this felt so complicated to them.

It felt like they didn’t have a media home, so to speak, someone that they could turn to that they felt would explain to them exactly what was happening in an in-depth way. They seem to want to seek out very detailed and perhaps very complex information about the election. Because they are invested and they are consuming a diverse set of sources in some cases, I do think there is room here at the very least.

Is the news media contributing to the problem by showing vote totals as they trickle in?

Murray: There’s some evidence that that was the case — that it might not be the best way to sustain trust in elections if you show the numbers and the mechanisms behind them go unexplained. I think that adding some context there, particularly around how different states count mail-in ballots, would’ve been really helpful.

But lots of outlets did offer explanations for the shifts. If it’s getting missed, is there cause for a more drastic change in election night coverage?

Stroud: I definitely think there is room for rethinking what election night coverage looks like. In this particular case, maybe not everyone is listening to it to hear that information. If they’re just looking at it visually, maybe there are ways to convey election results in better ways on air, and in print for that matter. Should we be reporting as 10 percent come in and 20 percent come in? I don’t know. I think that it’s worth having a conversation.

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— GOP candidate for Michigan governor arrested in connection with Jan. 6 attack: Ryan Kelley was arrested today on misdemeanor charges for participation in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia. Kelley, one of five candidates on the Aug. 2 Republican primary ballot, is being charged on four counts — all misdemeanors — including entering a restricted space and engaging in any act of physical violence against a person or property. Kelley is also charged with willingly injuring or committing depredation against any property of the United States. The FBI alleges Kelley can be seen in images ripping a cover off of scaffolding on the Capitol building during the riot.

— New York City scraps school mask mandate for toddlers: They won’t be required to wear masks in schools or day cares starting Monday, Mayor Eric Adams announced today in a move that lifted the public school system’s last remaining mask mandate. The city lifted the indoor mask mandate for New York City public school students in kindergarten through 12th grade in early March, but retained the requirement for toddlers — citing their ineligibility for vaccines, and the age group’s higher-than-average hospitalization rates.

— Biden’s ATF pick locks down key moderate support: Steven Dettelbach, President Joe Biden’s pick to be the country’s top guns regulator, appears headed to Senate confirmation after key moderate senators announced their support. Sens. Joe Manchin and Jon Tester announced today that they would back Dettelbach to lead the ATF.

— FBI: Navarro called arresting agents ‘Nazis’: Since his arrest last Friday on a pair of misdemeanor charges that he acted in contempt of Congress by defying a subpoena from the Jan. 6 House select committee, former Trump administration official Peter Navarro has been on a media tear, accusing the FBI of denying him a chance to call a lawyer and depriving him of food and water. But the Justice Department says all of those claims are false. DoJ documents filed in court today seem to mock Navarro’s priorities. The filing says FBI agents offered to contact an attorney for Navarro, but he wanted to use his phone to let a media outlet know he was likely to miss a scheduled TV interview.

— Florida Supreme Court hears gun law challenge: The Florida legal challenge has been in the judicial pipeline since 2018, when dozens of local cities and officials filed a challenge after the mass school shooting in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 dead and another 17 wounded. At issue before the state high court is a 2011 law that allows the state to fine local governments and officials thousands of dollars for approving strict gun laws. Local municipalities face fines of up to $100,000 and individual officials $5,000. The law being challenged is part of a decades-old “preemption” law approved by the Florida Legislature that prohibits local governments at the city or county level to pass measures stricter than those at the state level.

— Felicia Sonmez fired by The Washington Post: The paper has fired the well-known reporter after she complained publicly about a perceived lack of institutional willingness to confront misogynistic treatment of female staffers. Sonmez’s firing comes days after the paper suspended a fellow reporter, Dave Weigel, for a month after he retweeted a crude joke about women. Sonmez was highly critical of Weigel for the tweet, prompting a company memo reminding staff that criticizing fellow employees was a violation of company policies.

— NASA launches study seeking clues about UFOs: The goal of the study, which is due to be wrapped up in nine months, is meant to improve aircraft safety while gaining a better overall understanding of a series of unidentified aircraft flying in protected airspace in recent years, which the government refers to as “unmanned aerial phenomena,” or UAPs. NASA plans to share its findings publicly once the study is complete. NASA stressed the project will be conducted no differently than any other scientific investigation the space agency undertakes, and will cost no more than $100,000.

DEATH SENTENCES IN SHOW TRIALS — Kremlin-controlled authorities have sentenced to death two British citizens and a Moroccan national who all served in Ukraine’s military after a three-day show trial in which no evidence in their favor was presented, Christopher Miller writes.

British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, and Moroccan national Saadoun Brahim, were convicted of being foreign mercenaries and partaking in “terrorist” activities when captured by Russian forces — the Brits were captured in the southeastern city of Mariupol in April while Brahim was captured in March in Volnovakha, south of Donetsk.

A court sentenced them in the self-proclaimed “People’s Republic” of Donetsk, a territory of eastern Ukraine that Russia controls and is unrecognized by the international community. They have one month to appeal and possibly receive a reduced sentence, the court said. Otherwise, they face death by firing squad.

Aslin, 28, Pinner, 48, and Brahim, 21, were active-duty troops serving regular contracts with the Ukrainian military; Aslin had recently re-upped his contract for a fourth year and had deep ties to the country. As regular soldiers, the men should be protected by the Geneva Conventions on prisoners of war.

Russia and its proxy forces in Donetsk are believed to be using the cases of Aslin and Pinner to secure the release of Russian soldiers held prisoner by Ukraine and convicted in Kyiv. Russian proxy authorities in Donetsk had pushed for the U.K. and Ukraine in the weeks ahead of the trial to negotiate a prisoner swap with Aslin and Pinner for Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian politician who is in Kyiv’s custody and charged with treason.

NEVER TOO EARLY — As former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley crisscrosses the country ahead of an anticipated 2024 presidential bid, she is also fixated on defending her home turf — from an incursion led by her onetime boss, Trump, writes Alex Isenstadt.

Haley is putting her political muscle behind South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, a freshman congresswoman who blamed Trump for the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol riot — and who is now facing a Trump-endorsed opponent, Katie Arrington, in next week’s Republican primary. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, has appeared in Mace’s TV ads, headlined a fundraiser that raised six figures, and is expected to close out the race by holding several events with the congresswoman.

The former governor’s top lieutenants are also pitching in, with a top strategist, Betsy Ankney, in regular contact with the congresswoman’s team. Jon Lerner, Haley’s longtime pollster, recently conducted a survey for a pro-Mace outside group.

Haley’s intervention in the primary represents a political bet: By throwing her political might behind Mace — a candidate derided by Trump as “nasty, disloyal, and bad for the Republican Party” — and risking a defeat in her home state, Haley is taking steps to distinguish herself from a former president whom she served and who, like her, is weighing a 2024 bid.

Those in Trump’s orbit concede it’s likely Haley will end up with the win, with public polling showing Mace ahead. While Haley is barnstorming the Charleston-area district for her candidate during the final days of the contest in a sign of confidence, Trump has opted against making an 11th-hour trip for Arrington.

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