Explained The Role Of Belarus In The RussiaUkraine War

Belarus, the largest landlocked European country bordering the two warring nations has found itself in a precarious position amid its political proximity with Russia. The country is now at the receiving end of the West’s economic sanctions, meant to deter the Russian assault on Ukraine, despite restrictions already in place after the controversial election of its President, Alexander Lukashenko.

The Belarusian border serves as the site for dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to possibly end the war. However, both the first and second rounds of talks have yielded no significant breakthrough. Historically, Belarus has acted as the site of negotiations between the two nations – two sets of agreements were signed in the Belarusian capital of Minsk in 2014 and 2015 to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Initially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had refused to hold talks in Minsk, stating that missiles, helicopters, and rockets had been launched from Belarusian territory and “hit our lives”. Imploring its neighbour to “be Belarus, not Russia”, Zelenskyy said, “The war is going on and you’re not on the same side with us”. However, after the Lukashenko government assured their missiles and aircraft would stay grounded during the passage of the Ukrainian delegation, the two sides agreed to meet near the Ukraine-Belarus border in the vicinity of Pripyat River, a Facebook post by Ukraine Defence stated.

How has Belarus helped Russia?

PremiumPremiumPremiumPremiumEven as Lukashenko on Friday denied that Belarus would be joining the war, Ukraine military, just a day before, had alleged that Belarusian troops had already joined Russia’s assault. A top US official also told The Washington Post last week that Belarus was preparing to send its soldiers to support Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. “It’s very clear Minsk is now an extension of the Kremlin,” the administrative official was quoted as saying.

Additionally, on February 27, a constitutional referendum in Belarus allowed the country to scrap its non-nuclear status, paving the way for Russia to potentially station its nuclear weapons on its territory.

Lukashenko, according to news agency AP, has said that the West’s harsh sanctions may “push the world to the brink of World War III”. He has also warned that if NATO and its allies deploy nuclear arms in its neighbouring countries, then Belarus has “agreed with Putin to deploy such weapons here that will make Poles and Lithuanians lose any desire to go to war”.

This came on the same day when Russian President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert.

Belarus has already been reported as the “staging ground” for Russian troops, with CCTV footage showing tanks with Russian markings crossing the border over to Ukraine on the day of the invasion.

Last week, the Defence of Ukraine had claimed that it shot down a missile fired from Belarusian soil. “A few min ago, the Air Force of the AFU shot down a cruise missile fired at the capital of Ukraine from the territory of the Republic of Belarus by a TU-22 aircraft. This is another war crime of Belarus and Russia,” its official Twitter account said.

Prior to the announcement of the “special military operation” in Ukraine, the United States for months had raised concerns over 30,000 Russian troops, fighter jets and defence missile systems being stationed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine from the north, at the pretext of a military exercise. The stay of the troops had been extended indefinitely at the time, citing increased tensions in Donbass – the conflicted eastern Ukraine territory.

Why is Belarus helping Russia?

To understand why Belarus has been helping Russia, it’s important to first look at Lukashenko’s relationship with the Kremlin.

Lukashenko, often touted as Belarus’ dictator, was elected as the country’s President in 1994, just a few years after the fall of the Soviet Union. He has been in power since then and is widely known for running an authoritarian regime that allows for no dissenting voices.

Even before Putin came to power, Lukashenko had entered into a reluctant agreement with the former Russian president, Boris Yeltsin, in 1999 to merge as ‘Union State’. After years of deferment and negotiations, Minsk and Moscow signed off on 28 programmes under the Union State agreement in November 2021 to align on matters related to taxes, business, energy, and agriculture.

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Moscow values its alliance with Belarus as it forms a strategic land between Russia and the NATO-aligned Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. On the other hand, Belarus recognised the need for cosying up to Moscow after it was effectively cut off by the West, following Lukashenko’s crackdown on countrywide protests against his re-election.

In 2020, Lukashenko declared victory for the sixth time in the Presidential elections, prompting an uprising against the purportedly rigged electoral process. The protests saw violent clashes between the citizens and the police, with over 30,000 getting detained. Putin supplied Lukashenko with a loan of $1.5 billion and offered to send in Russian troops to contain the protests.

Citing human rights violations and fraudulent elections, over the years, the European Union, United Kingdom, United States and their allies have imposed restrictions such as travel ban and assets freeze on individuals and entities from Belarus, including Alexander Lukashenko and his son, Viktor. The restrictions were also imposed on the trading of petroleum products and potash – of which Belarus was the second-largest exporter in 2020, according to figures shared by the Canadian government – hitting the country’s export revenue.

The economy of Belarus & impact of sanctions

Russia is the largest trading partner of Belarus. In 2020, according to IMF data, Belarus exported over $13,000 million worth of goods to Russia. Its imports from Russia amounted to over $16,500 million, followed by China, which amounted to over $3,700 million. Apart from this, Belarus also enjoys subsidies on oil and gas from Russia.

However, in 2021, a Bloomberg report stated that Belarus had been able to tide over the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic largely due to its growing exports to the EU. It quoted data from Belstat, the official Belarus statistics agency, which showed that in the first three quarters of 2021, the EU imported 96.1 per cent more from Belarus than it had during the same period in 2020. Exports to Russia grew as well by 22.6 per cent.

The new sanctions against Belarus for its role in the Russia-Ukraine war, which cover 70 per cent of exports to the EU, are likely to cause trouble for the country. In fact, according to Reuters, while earlier sanctions covered just 20 per cent of potash exports, the 2022 sanctions ban them completely.

These restrictions come at a time when Belarus is looking to lower its inflation. According to an IMF analysis at the end of 2021, though its economy recovered to the pre-pandemic level, its growth has been weakening and inflation remained above target at around 10 per cent. The report also noted that international sanctions had limited Belarus’ alternatives to bring down the fiscal deficit as well as presented challenges to cross-border payments.

In 2020, Reuters reported that Belarus owed Russia $7.9 billion, accounting for per cent of its GDP at the time.